NZ’s Climate Strategy Under Scrutiny

The Climate Change Commission has released its first monitoring report under the Climate Change Response Act, warning that New Zealand is not on track to meet its legally binding climate targets.

The Climate Change Commission’s first monitoring report is a shot across the bow to the Government, strongly suggesting that it needs to up the ante on its climate policy response.

This is the first time the Commission has prepared a monitoring report since the Climate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Act came into force. It provides an ‘objective and impartial view’ of how Aotearoa New Zealand is progressing towards its emissions reduction goals.

The report highlights real issues with the Government’s current approach to emissions reductions, warning that there are ‘significant risks’ to meeting the second and third emissions budgets and the 2030 biogenic methane target.

This warning should be viewed alongside the Government’s draft Second Emissions Reduction Plan, released earlier this month.  The modelling provided shows New Zealand narrowly achieving its second emissions budget, but missing future targets. However, the draft Plan does not provide enough detail to test that modelling.

Under the Climate Change Response Act 2002, the Minister for Climate Change is legally obligated to ensure that the emissions budgets are met, and to develop robust emissions reduction plans that set out the policies and strategies for meeting those budgets.

The Commission’s report identifies several issues with the Government’s climate policies and strategies, including on over-reliance on the Emissions Trading Scheme and forestry removals rather than reductions in emissions at their source, and a failure to adopt adequate transport emissions reductions policies. The report shows that there are real delivery risks for New Zealand’s ability to meet the second and third emissions budgets:

As required by the Act, this report focuses solely on New Zealand’s domestic emissions budgets and 2050 net zero target. However, it also notes the looming concern that New Zealand is on track to significantly miss its 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement.

If New Zealand is to be taken seriously on the international stage regarding its climate change response, and if the Minister is to fulfil his legal obligations under the Climate Change Response Act, it’s critical that the Government takes the Climate Change Commission’s recommendations on board. The Government should strengthen its climate policies and strategies to ensure Aotearoa New Zealand is on track to meet our emissions budgets and 2050 target.